Stock Market Analysis

Friday, July 31, 2009

Surprisingly Strong Week for the Dow

Why do I say that it has been a surprisingly strong week for the Dow even though it gained only 0.86% for the week despite encouraging economic numbers?

Simply because we did not see any significant profit taking this week even though most of these optimistic numbers have already been priced into the big July rally. All short term technical analysis methods are screaming for a pullback but the Dow has resisted it so far. Does it mean that the pullback will not happen afterall? I do not think so. There is no rallies that move upwards only, especially at such a steep angle. The 9000 points resistance zone still has its effects on the Dow right now as the bulls found it impossible to stage a breakout whole week long. The Dow is also on its weekly 30 period moving average right now, which is a strong long term support and resistance level. With the rise in short term bearish momentum this week, I do expect the Dow to make a re-test of its 50 days moving average at about 8600 points over the next couple of weeks. For now, the Dow remains in all out bull trend.

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