Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

No Vote of Confidence...

Obama took office as the new President of the United States today after an overwhelming vote of confidence by the people but he did not seem to get the same vote of confidence today with investors as they sold off heavily on the financial sector, taking the Dow down over 300 points. In fact, Citigroup has also failed to keep itself together and has announced a split up into two companies, making investors wonder how much of those toxic waste still remain. Despite this single day lack of confidence, the State Street Investor Confidence Index (yes, State Street is doing poorly as well, wonder if it affects the quality of the reports it make) registered a surge in investor confidence in January (see economic calendar).

On the technical front, the Dow totally erased the short term turn around and continued its short term bear trend towards the bottom of its intermediate term neutral trend. However, the Dow is only halfway down its intermediate neutral trend channel and is already in grossly oversold condition, casting doubt to the sustainability of its short term bear trend. In fact, after such a huge dip, it won't be surprising to see the Dow actually pull back up tomorrow.

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