Quiet Week Ahead...

Last week's unemployment number really came in multi-year high at 6.5% as I expected and the stock market really did rise on that news, again, as expected.

Did last Friday's surge do anything for the market trend? Sadly, no. The Dow continues to be in a short term neutral trend within a primary bear trend. Nothing changed. However, such a resilience in the face of such high unemployment rate did get me worried. Capitulation in the unemployment number usually do not suggest that the stock market is going lower but HIGHER! Yes, in fact, the stock market turned right up and never looked back when unemployment peaked at 6.3% during the last crisis. Is it time for the stock market to start pricing in a recovery? Is 6.5% unemployment rate the peak for this crisis? These are the most important questions to try to answer within the next 2 weeks in order not to miss a bottom. So, is the stock market going to still make a new low and a final capitulation like I predicted? That prospect would get rather shaky if 6.5% unemployment rate is indeed the new peak. Either way, I would say that there is now little money to be made with a lot of uncertainty if anyone wants to be newly bearish right now. The money have been made for the bears and its time to look for bullish opportunities instead.


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