Is This Time STILL Different?

The great retreat in crude oil price has resulted in a 3 days "rally" for the Dow and I even suggested that this time round it could be different. Indeed, it was really different for crude oil price as it fell for 4 straight days. In fact, crude oil has never retreated for 4 straight days in 2008! Is it still different for stocks in general? Is it still different for the Dow? It is still hard to tell for sure as the Dow is in a deep oversold position and totally due for a relief rally anyways. The only way to tell if the Dow has found a bottom is by observing if it makes a new low when it retreats again next in accordance to the Dow Theory. For now, the most possible scenario is for the Dow to go neutral within a range of about 11000 to 11600 before it really decides where it wants to go. On the technical front, the downwards channel for the Dow remains strong and intact with a ceiling at about 11750. Lending strength to the reversal story is the continued pouring in of funds from the credit market into the equities market as indicated by the rising bond yield curve (see bond yield curve). The last time such a phenomena happened back in March, the Dow went into an intermediate bull trend. So, there are now plenty of reasons to be bullish while the bearish sentiments still exist out there. The bulls and the bears are now ready for a final bout to decide who rules.