Stock Market Analysis

Monday, April 14, 2008

The Final Straw Continued...


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
What was shaping up as a really terrible day in the pre-market futures ended up with the market largely sideways, a draw day. The Bulls beat back the pre-market Bears when retail sales turned in far better than expected, up 0.2% instead of the widely speculated negative number. Is consumerism returning to the great country? Remember, consumers make up 75% of the economy and if they are coming back, I don't want to bet against them. Another good reason for the draw day today is the PPI and CPI numbers that are going to be released over the next 2 days. Both numbers are going to decide if the Fed is going to cut further and yes, investors still expect a rate cut right now.

Remember my final straw argument? (If not, please read my posts over the last 3 weeks) Oil and Gold used to be what I call the final straw hindering a full scale rally and now, only Oil stands. Gold has gotten so high that people are not only selling gold futures and shares but actually selling their jewelries! This has put gold back down into a new decending channel, so, so long Gold. However, offsetting the retreat in Gold is the gains in Oil. Oil continues to make new highs as more geo-political factors reinforced the positive bias in the market. Until we see oil lose favor, the rally is not likely to start in force. I will be keeping my eyes open on this one.

So many investors have been hurt so far that I feel obligated to teach you guys the Stock Repair Strategy. Just finished that article today and you can learn it for free now instead of paying thousands to learn this in seminars. This is a great way to repair your losing stocks as long as they rise moderately.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow came back down and found support along the 30 days moving average while the point and figure charts still held a nice rising bottom, so, the bulls are still far from being killed and certainly there are a lot more upside potential than downside in the market right now. Does that mean that the financials are coming back right now? Not just yet. The financials as a sector as represented by the XLF is still in a strong bear trend. This is the time for sector picking like I mentioned over the past few days. There are a lot of sectors working right now that it doesn't make sense to bang your head against the financial wall.

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