Stock Market Analysis

Monday, March 31, 2008

Oil and Gold Gets Beaten At Last!


The market ended slightly positive today ahead of tomorrow's ISM index release (see economic calendar), which is a very important number. A positive number tomorrow could totally defeat those still in the recession camp and add a huge ally to the rebound camp. The most important observation today is definitely the retreat in both oil and gold! If you have been following my blog, you would know that oil and gold are what I call the "Last Straw" that is going to totally murder the bears and start a roaring bullish eruption. Looks like it is starting already! So, what would we need from this point forward for the bullish eruption to start?

1. Oil and Gold continue to sell off and break short term support

2. ISM and Job report turning out positive

On the technical front, the market is actually more sideways than up today and is again in a very critical juncture. A break upwards could spell a visit to the 12750 resistance level but a break downwards would confirm the short term bear channel and see new lows within the next 2 weeks. As a technical trader, we want to see real evidence and see the break actually happen and then trade the trend rather than try to anticipate the anticipators. Stock options are definitely the best tool to trade this kind of speculation risking only very little money for the same rewards.

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