Uncertainty Ahead Of Consumer Confidence Numbers...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The Dow closed sideways today as the bulls and bears wage a ferocious battle for supremacy today, ahead of tomorrow's Consumer Confidence number. Even though the Consumer Confidence number tomorrow is not a historically market moving indicator, it still does cast some light on what to expect for the really big numbers later this week. (please see option trader hq for economic calendar)Even the total equity put/call ratio turned in almost neutral at 1.12 today, so it is hard to see any clear inclination. In the light of recent events, clearly the US economy is at the early recovery stage and the numbers turning in should support that view and lift the stock markets. I remain optimistic for now with regards to the fundamentals.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow has officially lasped into a dangerous neutral trend from a bull trend. A neutral trend here means that it will trade up and down within a tight sideways channel. Clearly, the Dow is now trading within a channel of between 13250 and 13670. The good thing is that such a neutral trend do not usually last very long. The bad news is, if the next trend shift should be to downside, it usually goes into a bear trend instead of just a minor correction. It is clear by now that the all important 30MA is no longer supporting this rally and looking at the weekly charts, it is also about time the Dow make a landing back onto the weekly 30MA before its rally can resume. Such a landing can be as low as 12780. The last time the Dow landed back down on its weekly 30MA is during the 27 Feb ditch. It is hard to make any predictions right now as the Dow can also remain within its neutral channel and let the weekly 30MA catch up to it instead. Such is the time to be fully
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