Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Stocks Soar Following Fed Release.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Clearly, the rally today was completely due to the Fed comments. The Dow surged 159.42 points and the Nasdaq composite surged 47.71 points. The stock market was almost completely flat until the FOMC minutes were released. The Feds have left interest rates unchanged, as expected, and have left comments that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and that they continue to be data dependant... again, As Expected. Even though everything the Feds said today sounded like it came from a script of my own writing, the stock market still reacted to it in a big way... in fact, too big a way in my honest opinion. Well, no matter what, at least we see a verdict from investors today as volume surged along with the market. This tells us that this move is indeed one that reflects the sentiments of the masses

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Well well well, what do we know? :) Yesterday, I mentioned that today is going to be a critical juncture for the market where it must break the 12300 level on good volume in order to complete the W bottom setup for more possible upside and that was what we got today. In fact, sentiments became clear straight after the Fed release and nimble traders would have taken advantage of it to upside right there. For the first time since the ditch of 27 Feb, our ADX is turning out a decline of the bear trend and a taking over of the bull trend. Momentum is strong and market is still a distance from being short term overbought. A few days of sideways trading usually follow such a strong surge, after that, the 12500 psychological resistance level will be the next hurdle and crossing which, we just might see a continuation of the previous bull trend.


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