Stock Market Analysis

Monday, February 05, 2007

Stocks Take A Breather After An Exciting Week!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Markets slowed to take a breather today after an exciting week last week. The Dow closed up marginally by 0.07% and the Nasdaq composite closed down by 0.21%. The drop in the Nasdaq composite was due mainly to a severe drop in MSFT after comments was made that the sale on Window Vista do not justify the current high share prices. With no big releases to move the market, investors may be looking forward to more of Benanke's speeches tomorrow. We all know that Bernanke's speeches are crafted to sound hawkish at all times so that markets are not affected, so, its really down to the sentiments that are already within all investors to interpret what they hear. My take is that whatever he says will not have a lasting effect on the stock markets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow and the Nasdaq composite took a break today as they closed sideways. By now, it is obvious that the Dow is forming yet another step in its staircase or saw teeth formation and we should therefore see another new high by the end of the week or early next week. Nasdaq took a breather today as it continued its journey to the 2500 resistance level. Although still a distance from that level, it is already displaying slight indications of short term overbought condition. Usually when prices are this close to resistance level, I would ideally love to see relative indicators and momentum indicators slightly off the short term overbought levels so that it has more technical energy to stage a breakthrough. From what I see of the Nasdaq composite now, it may still have a little problem at the 2500 level once again. This is compounded also by a slowing energy sector as oil prices come against a strong $60 resistance level and have started to show weakness. All in all, my take remains that the Dow is in a Bullish Trend and the Nasdaq composite remains in a Neutral Trend.




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