Stock Market Analysis

Friday, January 19, 2007

Techs Halt Decline As Oil Recovers!

FUNDAMENTALS
Oil rallied almost $2 in a day closing up $51.99 yesterday. That gave the Tech sector a slight boost as the Nasdaq Composite closed up slightly by 0.33%. The Dow continue to display slight weakness, which was expectedly in our technical analysis, with the lacklustre earning seasons so far and closed down marginally by 0.02%. So far, this has been a week that surprised many investors. While most investors expect bullishness to prevail as Q1 earnings are expected to be strong, the reverse happened. The markets always have its way of teaching us not to be over confident. Next week shall be another week of high level of uncertainty. With the mixed sentiments created by the earnings seasons so far, this is the time investors turn to more technical analysis for guidance.

TECHNICALS
Hardly surprising move in the markets as both the Nasdaq composite and the Dow played out EXACTLY as we have expected them to. The Dow continued to close sideways in order to form its staircase formation with no surprise and the Nasdaq composite rebounded off its 50 days moving average as we have predicted it to. The 50 days moving average once again proved itself to be a strong support level as investors rallied about that point to give support to the index. The Nasdaq composite has once again formed a bullish harami candlestick formation comprising of one big down day and one small up day near the bottom of the down candle. This is an extremely bullish formation which has helped the index stage numerous turnabouts. I suspect that the Nasdaq composite would go into a new neutral channel bordered by its 50 days moving average and the 2500 level. The Dow's chart pattern continues to be very healthy and is not even surprising should it test the 12500 level soon before moving up to greater heights. This will certainly help it wear off some short term overbought sentiments.


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