Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 4 Dec 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets closed lower last Friday amidst the effects of unfavorable economic data on Thursday. The good news is that Fed fund futures are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut by next March and that could form a little bullish undercurrent. Oil price continue to trade higher as it breaks above $63 last Friday. Even though this surge in oil price has given a good boost to the energy sector, a sustained rally could hurt business fundamentals and therefore the stock markets.

TECHNICALS
Markets closed sideways last Friday as it laspe into another consolidation much like the kind we saw in October. Oil continue to follow up strongly on its rally to break above $63 and that could be a very dangerous sign as the market rally so far has been inversely proportionate to the drop in oil price. We see the crude oil ETF, USO, display a shift in short term trend to an uptrend on ADX for the first time since late June. In my opinion, if oil continue to move strongly, we might see the major indices break the 30MA and test the 50MA.



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